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Reciprocal tariff policies to be released this week, with a high focus on US trade deficit countries and will push up the inflation. The reciprocal tariff policies will soon be released on April 2nd, and the policies will focus on the main sources of the US trade deficit, including the countries and regions with higher trade surpluses and tax rates. For the top 15 economies with largest goods trade deficits, they accounted for 86% of imports and 74% of exports, including China, EU, Mexico, Vietn

First FOMC meeting after Trump’s tariff measures: policymakers expressed a cautious look while the statement did not reveal much new information. Last week’s FOMC meeting forecasted a certain degree of “stagflation-like” risk, as the officials lowered the economic growth projection while they increased the unemployment rate forecast and inflation expectations. This reflects the officials’ concern that tariffs will negatively affect economic growth and drive up price pressures, therefor

US economic recession? A downward growth trend may indicate the recession narrative may continue to unfold. While economic predictions like Atlanta GDPNow pointed to a 2.4% annualized contraction, the weakness of the US economy may be overstated, and the current data is indicating a more moderate slowdown. The current demand weakness mainly comes from federal budget cutting and tariff-related uncertainties. The Jan real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by 0.4% MoM, which is the lowe