Angel Versetti

Rethinking Diplomacy… Pandas, native to China, have long symbolized friendship and goodwill, playing a crucial role in China's diplomatic efforts since 1949. This practice, known as "panda diplomacy," began when Mao Zedong gifted a panda to the Soviet Union in 1957. A significant moment in this tradition occurred in 1972 when China gifted two pandas to the U.S. following President Nixon's visit, marking a key event in China-U.S. relations. Since 1984, China has shifted from gifting to loaning pandas to overseas zoos, promoting cultural exchanges and requiring the pandas' return after a decade. These loans involve annual fees of up to $1 million, reinforcing China's use of pandas as cultural ambassadors. Pandas have also strengthened trade ties, with studies linking panda leases to international agreements. China's recent gesture of returning pandas to the U.S. and President Xi Jinping's offer to send more reflects China's commitment to fostering bilateral relations. Panda diplomacy remains a unique and effective aspect of China's foreign policy, using these cherished animals to enhance international cooperation. #diplomacy #pandadiplomacy Source: Reuters.com

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As an avid China watcher, I’ve eagerly anticipated the upcoming Third Plenum starting next week. This event is a crucial opportunity to reset expectations in China and internationally. Attached is an insightful summary from the Rhodium Group. Here are my takeaways from this and other commentary. The Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, convening from July 15 to 18, aims to outline a long-term economic reform agenda. This meeting is critical for Beijing to address past unfulfilled promises and communicate its future economic direction. The stakes are high, and the costs of necessary economic adjustments have risen significantly. Beijing faces substantial challenges in conveying its reform priorities to domestic and international audiences. Urgent structural reforms are needed in fiscal policy, credit allocation, land reform, and industrial innovation. The focus will be on developing a unified national market, balancing central and local government revenues, reducing preferential credit to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and enabling rural households to profit from land sales or rental income. Immediate breakthroughs are not expected, as the Plenum is unlikely to provide detailed policy proposals or short-term economic stimulus. Instead, Beijing must reset expectations and communicate a coherent plan for changing China’s economic trajectory. The most significant positive outcome would be clear, actionable plans that enhance wealth creation through progressive fiscal changes and rural land reform. To gauge the credibility of the reforms, Rhodium provides several helpful signals to watch for: - Financial and Fiscal Systems: A plan to restructure LGFV debt and recognise losses; tax reform to fix central-local fiscal imbalances; public expenditure reforms that redirect spending to human capital investments and consumption support. - Market Competition: Protection of market determination in resource allocation; withdrawal of SOEs from competitive sectors; acknowledgement of past inaccuracies in national income and GDP statistics, with a commitment to improvement. - Trade and Investment: Commitment to reporting WTO subsidies; suspension of coercive trade diplomacy; acknowledgement of overcapacity spillovers due to systemic macroeconomic imbalances. Ultimately, the success of this Plenum will hinge on Beijing’s ability to deliver credible reforms that address pressing economic challenges and benefit the broader population. This meeting represents a pivotal moment to reset and clarify China’s economic reform agenda #ChinaEconomy #EconomicReform #ThirdPlenum #GlobalBusiness #StructuralReforms #BeijingPolicy #FiscalReform #InnovationLeadership #MarketDevelopment #EconomicGrowth #InternationalTrade #InvestmentOpportunities #PolicyShift #BusinessStrategy #GlobalEconomics https://lnkd.in/eQ-kBvw9

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MOVING INTO HIGH GEAR Bridges of innovation in a time of war By: Michael Lim Ubac - @inquirerdotnet Philippine Daily Inquirer Amidst the backdrop of a raging war between #Israel and #Hamas in #Gaza and #Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli Ambassador to the Philippines Ilan #Fluss is continuing his engagement in the #Philippines, quietly working with private and government agencies to strengthen what he calls “bridges of #innovation and #technology” between the Philippines and Israel. “This is what we are preaching, this is what we are calling for—we have to work together to develop a #betterworld for us all,” said Fluss, 58, who was recently interviewed by this columnist following Israel’s 76th #Independence Day. In 1947, the Philippines was the only Asian nation to vote for the creation of a separate Jewish state, which was established the following year. Since then, Israel has waived visa requirements for Filipino tourists and pilgrims who visit the Jewish homeland, which is home to some of #Christianity’s most sacred sites and the birthplace of #Jesus# Christ. Our conversation focused on what’s keeping Fluss busy these days, besides praying for the return of the 115 #Israelis #kidnapped by Hamas during the terror attack in Israel last Oct. 7. Fluss outlined the ongoing cooperation in agriculture, water and food security, cybersecurity, labor, and education between our two nations. For Fluss, Israeli innovation, including the coronary stent used in heart operations, components of iPhones, and the development of Viber and Waze, helps advance the good of humanity. As the so-called “startup nation,” Israel has a global hub of innovation that is considered the third most successful startup per capita in the world, after Silicon Valley and New York in the United States. *** Therefore, our capacity for developing #advanced #industries can grow further if we have the #proper #mindset. It is important for us to innovate collectively as a nation. A #paradigmshift from a fragmented approach to development, which relies on private capital to fuel growth, to a #collaborative model underpinned by government support and direction is needed. This holistic approach entails a #quantumleap in R&D, and the valuing of individual #talents and #skills is made central to the whole #enterprise. Fluss also addressed the elephant in the room during the interview—the resolution of the Israel-Hamas #War. To find out how he responded to the high #deathtoll and the ongoing #humanitarian #crisis, download the new Inquirer Mobile app and watch the highlights of the exclusive interview.

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The Tokyo Governorship: Give Tabogami Consideration The election for the Tokyo governor is fast approaching. The press keeps trying to limit the discussion to Renho and Koike; without wasting time on their many faults, I would like to posit that more people give Tabogami serious consideration. In this time, of international uncertainty in Europe and Asia (and of course Asia), doesn't it make sense to elect a leader who has the respect of the SDF as the former leader of them and who knows how to implement their services in various forms of disasters. Japan has enough individuals who can provide advice on the economy and how to do projection mapping affordably, what it doesn't have is leaders with even half a brain about how to utlize the SDF both in times of peace and uncertainty. On a national basis, the last time an inexperienced chap took the leadership, the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred and his massive inexperience and lack of qualification became apparent. We shouldn't repeat that mistake again now. Musings of a permanent resident holding his breath...

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Two strong pieces on Japanese politics published in Nikkei Asia today. First up, this long read from our editor-in-chief Shin Nakayama. His main argument is: "Japan is also unique in its electoral system, where both houses are elected through a combination of district and proportional representation. While this system helps capture the broad popular will in both houses, it also transforms elections into a confidence vote for the prime minister. As a result, discussions within the ruling party -- typically the LDP -- often focus more on the prime minister's popularity and electability than on his ability to implement the policy agenda." Also a great main image https://lnkd.in/g83_eC9Y We also have Reuters veteran linda sieg arguing in an op-ed that Japan's centre ground is holding for now, but a low turnout and seat gains by parties on the far left and right mean there is a risk of populism rearing its ugly head at some point in the future. https://lnkd.in/gECthDn7

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Only on Bloomberg Yardeni Says China Remains Uninvestable Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, says China remains "uninvestable" in 2025 despite government measures to boost the economy. He also says the yield on China’s bonds “could get closer to zero” than 1% before the end of the year. Speaking on Insight with Haslinda Amin, Yardeni says it seems like Chinese policymakers are “running out of magic here” after multiple rounds of stimulus have failed to kickstart consumer spending. “A property debacle takes many years to clean out and overcome” and continues to weigh on the economy Yardeni Prefers India to China Yardeni Likes consumer, banking sector in India India’s slowing economy and weakening rupee may deter foreign investors from staying put in Indian equities. But the New Year selloff in Chinese shares (the worst start in 20 years) offers overseas money managers a reason to reconsider. Many were quick to cut their India positions to cash in on the rally in China. Ed Yardeni says that fund managers might fare better by maintaining their India bets despite high valuations. That is due to mounting skepticism about the durability of China’s economic recovery. He expects India to mirror the US equity market. On Gold Case for gold “fairly straightforward and simple one” as countries like China buy bullion; need to see a calming down of geopolitical tensions in order for the rally in gold to reverse Sees potential for gold going to $3000/ounce Follow developments only on Bloomberg Watch it here: https://lnkd.in/gNJf_qjV Edward Yardeni #china #india #financialmarkets

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6/2/2024, Plainfield, NJ The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan Paperback – July 1, 2024 by Matt Pottinger (Editor) Gabriel Collins Andrew Erickson Matthew Turpin Michael Hunzeker Enoch Wu Kobi Marom Ivan Kanapathy Robert Haddick Mark Montgomery Isaac "Ike" Harris Elaine Luria Grant Newsham Yoki Koda Dr Ross Babbage Anders Fogh Rasmussen Jonas Parello-Plesner 288 pages The Hoover Institution, Stanford University Press $25.95 "The Boiling Moat" is a timely and sobering examination of the growing threat China poses to Taiwan's sovereignty and democracy. Edited by Matt Pottinger, a former U.S. deputy national security advisor, the book brings together a team of scholars and military experts to outline practical steps for deterring Chinese aggression against Taiwan. 1. Key Takeaways The authors argue that preventing a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan is crucial not just for Taiwan's survival, but for the security of the entire Indo-Pacific region and global economy. They stress the importance of learning from recent failures in deterrence, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The book lays out a robust military strategy for Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, Australia, and Europe to collectively pursue. This includes strengthening Taiwan's defensive capabilities, increasing intelligence sharing, and demonstrating a credible willingness to respond forcefully to Chinese provocations. Pottinger and his team underscore the significance of Taiwan's semiconductor industry and its role in the global supply chain. A Chinese takeover would have catastrophic economic consequences worldwide. 2. Praise and Criticism The book has received praise from foreign policy experts like Orville Schell and former officials like H.R. McMaster and Mike Pompeo for its clear-eyed analysis and urgent call to action. Critics, however, may argue that its hawkish stance could escalate tensions and increase the risk of conflict. Overall, "The Boiling Moat" is a well-researched and thought-provoking work that highlights the grave risks of Chinese aggression against Taiwan and the need for a coordinated international response. It is a must-read for anyone interested in understanding one of the world's most pressing geopolitical challenges. #The_Boiling_Moat #PlainfieldNJ A Strategic Deep Dive on TikTok, The Boiling Moat of Taiwan, and China’s Next-Gen Statecraft (4K) https://lnkd.in/eykFa2n2

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My latest #NikkeiAsia column -- on #China's challenging outlook Why #China is not yet the engine of trade the world needs

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Newsweek: Satellite Photos Capture 🇨🇳Chinese Ship Swarm Near 🇺🇸US Ally's Territory Satellite images have revealed a "swarm" of nearly 100 Chinese vessels continuing to occupy waters near a 🇵🇭Philippine-held island in the contested #SouthChinaSea. Thitu Island, called Pag-Asa in the #Philippines and Zhongye Island in #China, is the second-largest naturally occurring feature in the Spratly Islands and the only one with a permanent civilian population. It and a number of other South China Sea features are at the center of territorial tensions between Beijing and the U.S. defense treaty ally. Ray Powell...shared satellite photos captured Tuesday by a European Space Agency satellite on X. The images show Chinese ships clustered close to Thitu. "By far the largest PRC (People's Republic of China) vessel swarm I've ever seen off Thitu Island," Powell wrote. "Despite clouds, I count at least 73-75 ships sitting 2.5-5.5 nautical miles (2.9-6.3 miles) from the island—well within its 12 nm territorial sea." Separate images Powell shared with Newsweek on Thursday revealed the ships remained in the area and in greater numbers. Using MarineTraffic, which tracks ships via their Automatic Identification Systems, Powell counted 83 distinct vessels. He noted, however, that additional ships may be operating in the area with their transponders switched off, a tactic often employed by China's coast guard and maritime militia.

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South China Sea: Why a violent escalation might be imminent An armed conflict between the Philippines and China is brewing on no less than three reefs in the South China Sea. The situation could escalate quickly, even dragging the USA into a military conflict. 👉 China is currently building a massive blockade at Scarborough Shoal with the aim of blocking access to Philippine supply vessels. 👉 In the dispute over the Second Thomas Shoal, Beijing claims there is an agreement with Manila that would regulate access to the reef and an old stranded warship – to China's benefit. 👉 China reportedly began building an artificial island at Sabina Shoal – as it has already done at other locations in the South China Sea. China and the Philippines each invoke their supposedly legitimate rights. However, that is no longer the issue - at least since the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in The Hague. In July 2016, the court decided China's claims along a nine-dash line were null and void. But Beijing refuses to accept the ruling. In fact, China's leadership now seems willing to accept an armed conflict. But this could also quickly draw the USA into a military conflict. More China.Table and Table.Briefings With great assessment from Ray Powell #China #SouthChinaSea #Philippines #geopolitics #military https://lnkd.in/ewXTKEdC

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Lots of investment activity in the East Asian space economy, and this time it's a Japanese company that has completed a successful fundraising round. Synspective is a Tokyo-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data and analytics solutions provider that raised 7 billion yen ($44 million) in a Series C fundraising round led by Japan Growth Capital with participation from Japanese financial heavyweights Nomura and Mizuho. Excerpts from my story for Aviation Week Network below: Synspective builds and operates SAR satellites that it uses to provide data analytics and solution services. On March 13, the company launched its fourth SAR satellite, StriX-3, which successfully reached its target orbit. By the late 2020s, Synspective intends to establish a constellation of 30 SAR satellites that the company says will allow it to observe changes anywhere on Earth. The company and investors see a significant market opportunity. “The supply of SAR satellite data is currently limited amidst increasing worldwide demand, and experts expect this field to grow dramatically,” said Kazumasa Watanabe, CEO of Synspective investor aSTART Co. In a new report, research firm Technavio estimates the global SAR market will grow by $1.68 billion between 2024 and 2028, a compound annual growth rate of more than 7%. While demand from the defense sector is an important driver of this growth, SAR is also used to monitor infrastructure projects and assess damage after natural disasters. In a recent interview with Japan’s External Trade Organization, Synspective CEO Arai said the company sought to harness SAR technology to enhance natural disaster preparedness, natural resource and energy development, and economic growth. Synspective’s SAR satellites use microwaves that can penetrate clouds. The satellite can detect the reflected microwave, which is important in Asia given the tendency for monsoons and seasonal rains to leave entire regions cloudy for weeks, Arai said. #aerospace #space #japan #investing #venturecapital #naturaldisasters #satellite #energy #naturalresources #data https://lnkd.in/gZjZypbG

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Today in Asia Times, I wrote about China's construction of the Type 076 amphibious assault ship, which signals a new drone-centric naval strategy. This advanced vessel, built in Shanghai, bridges the gap between China's largest amphibious warship and its most advanced aircraft carrier, potentially supporting uncrewed combat air vehicles (UCAVs) and other fixed-wing drones. The Type 076's introduction underscores China's ambition to enhance its maritime strike capabilities and address crucial sealift gaps in a Taiwan invasion scenario. China's naval strategy involves using drone carriers like the Type 076 to project power and conduct operations at extended distances. This approach offers a safer and more economical option for risky missions, though drones still face limitations in environments with strong air defenses. As China builds up its naval fleet, including light carriers, it continues to expand its Marine Corps and amphibious assault capabilities, positioning itself for a potential conflict with Taiwan. However, significant challenges remain in drones achieving air superiority and addressing the survivability of these new naval assets.

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🇨🇳🐺 VOA [excerpt]: #China’s new ambassador to #Cambodia, Wang Wenbin, arrived in early July with a reputation as a highly experienced and combative #diplomat in what is seen as the first move in a coming battle for influence between superpowers in the Southeast Asian nation. The #UnitedStates and #Australia are expected to follow soon with their own new envoys who are seasoned in China relations. The personnel moves come less than a year into the first term of Prime Minister Hun Manet, a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and Cambodia’s first new prime minister in decades. Hun Manet is the son of Cambodia’s longtime leader Hun Sen and part of a new generation of politicians from the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, which has been in power for more than 40 years. #Diplomats are waiting to see whether he will adjust his country’s “ironclad friendship” established with China by his father. At present, China is Cambodia's largest trading partner and a significant source of foreign investment and development assistance. China wants to deepen those ties through its #BeltandRoad Initiative and other cooperative frameworks. Potentially standing in the way of that goal are concerns in Cambodia about an over-reliance on China, an effort by Phnom Penh to balance relations with the West, and public concerns about #corruption and Chinese investments primarily benefiting the elite. Wang is a former Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson and former ambassador to Tunisia, with more than 30 years of diplomatic experience, according to China Daily. He is one of what China describes as a new breed of combative “wolf warrior” diplomats. With his extensive experience, analysts believe Wang will be able to sustain the close ties between China and Cambodia or even increase Beijing’s #influence with the Phnom Penh government and the region. ... The U.S, meanwhile, is awaiting the final confirmation by the U.S. Senate of its next ambassador to Cambodia, according to a U.S. Embassy spokesperson in Phnom Penh. He is Robert Forden, a career diplomat who has held the second-ranking position at the U.S. missions in both Beijing and Taipei and was charge d’affaires at the Beijing embassy from 2020 to 2021. Australia, for its part, this month named its next ambassador to Phnom Penh as Derek Yip, who has held two postings to Beijing and served most recently as assistant secretary of the Foreign Ministry’s East Asia political branch. According to Em Sovannara, a political science professor at the University of Cambodia in Phnom Penh, the appointment of capable, senior diplomats from both superpowers could make Cambodia a diplomatic battleground on issues such as the South China Sea, where China has competing territorial claims with several of Phnom Penh’s fellow ASEAN members. The U.S. is also concerned about Chinese involvement in Cambodia’s controversial Ream naval base. #news #geopolitics

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Chester Cabalza, founder of International Development and Security Cooperation, a think tank in Manila, said China "is not yet confident" to escalate tensions. Considering its current unstable economy, he added, Beijing's game plan will be to stick to gray-zone operations. Despite China's provocation, the Philippines has chosen a path of restraint, refraining from retaliating against Chinese vessels, except by using its transparency strategy of inviting journalists on missions. This paints a clear picture of who the aggressor and defender are in the eyes of the public and international community. The tactical limitation might have led Beijing to simultaneously deploy a variety of other approaches, including the alleged leak of a phone conversation between officials and the "gentleman's agreement" between Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping, in which China claims Manila apparently promised not to repair or build structures at the Second Thomas Shoal. The Marcos administration does not recognize either of the claims. At the same time, experts see that even with its greater forces, Beijing is not ready, and perhaps not keen, to cross a red line. "China does not yet [have] the edge in future conflicts in regional waters, since the U.S.'s allies and partners have rehearsed a strong collective deterrence [with the aim of trying] to encircle the [People's Liberation Army Navy]," said Cabalza of the IDSC. https://lnkd.in/g3RvYWvY

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I watched Xi Jinping's New Year's address, and found it to be milder than I was expecting. Xi looked tired but calm and composed, and spoke crisply. --Incredibly optimistic, about the great strides -- in artificial intelligence, in Olympics performance, in supporting Africa's development -- that China has made over 2024. --Filled with propagandist language, like "We must bring more smiles to our people and greater warmth to their hearts." --He spoke about the inevitability of reunifying with Taiwan, but not within a distinct time period, and he's used harsher language on it before. --The only direct reference to the United States came in a photo from the Paris Olympics, which showed China's flag higher than the American flag. The audience to this if of course domestic, but for U.S. audiences watching, the message seemed to be, "We're going to win, but we're not in a hurry." Here is a link with English subtitles: https://lnkd.in/eyXCAWPT

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In Episode 42, "Why Should We Care About the Kuomintang, 🇹🇼#Taiwan's Opposition Party?", Ray Powell & James Carouso welcome Victor Chin, the official KMT representative to the U.S., to discuss Taiwan’s current political, geopolitical and security landscape. They discuss how the KMT evolved, from the flight with Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan at end of the Chinese Civil War; through decades of unchallenged KMT rule over the island; to its transition to a multiparty democracy; through to today as the primary opposition party to the ascendant Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). They turn to Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, the building military threat from the People’s Republic of #China (PRC), the need for Taiwan to prepare its entire society for hostilities, and the crucial role the U.S. plays in ensuring its security. Victor explains why the KMT emphasizes its support for the “1992 Consensus” regarding “One China” and its ambiguous interpretation. He explains the difference in how the KMT looks at cross-strait relations, which emphasizes dialogue over confrontation to manage tensions, until such time as democracy can be the force that unifies China. This conservative approach has earned the KMT the reputation of being Beijing’s preferred party, but Victor insists it remains Taiwan’s original and staunch bastion against communism. To close, Jim’s “There I was” story leads him and Ray into a discussion about the promises of authoritarianism versus democracy, which Churchill described as “the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried.” Watch Episode 42 of Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? on YouTube at: https://lnkd.in/g5V_iYee Or download on your favorite #podcast service, like: Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/g_w-SWVw Spotify: https://lnkd.in/gaf4q7nG Amazon Music: https://lnkd.in/gGAnJNHU Or wherever you get your podcasts!

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